You know that personal film project they claimed one of the founders was distracted by? It was a Subnautica film they asked him to make.
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The moment I saw Subnautica 2 is being published by Krafton, I knew it will be dead on the crib. Average Korean game company behavior.
This honestly feels like an “everyone sucks here” situation. It’s obviously bad that the publisher just sacked the 3 founders of a developer and replaced them with a CEO from a developer they just scuttled… But then there is this terrible sell-out deal the devs went for where 1/3 of the sale price of the company was tied up in sales performance with the deadline rapidly approaching so of course they want to put out a shiny new title for people to buy even though they keep having to cut the planned content down to almost nothing. (supposedly, obvi I haven’t played it…)
AND THEN there is what I am calling Schrodinger’s Beta. It is supposedly right now ready for early access release (which means Krafton delaying the game is proof of being shady and avoiding the bonus), but also likely going to flop because they got rid of the founders and now they won’t have the devs to make it any good (making Krafton correct in delaying the EA because it isn’t ready yet…).
This whole thing is a mess of pointing fingers and no one knows what’s real. Truth of the matter is probably that both sides are right. Dev’s want to push the game out to get the rest of what they feel they are owed, whether the game is ready for EA be damned. Publisher wants to not pay for any of that, downsize the dev team to finish production as cheap as possible just to drop a steaming turd with just enough name recognition to keep their line going up, but not to make enough money they can’t plausible deniability sink another developer. I hope I’m wrong, because I was looking forward to Subnautica 2 (mostly just to have a multiplayer subnautica experience), but the industry has mostly convinced me to assume the worst in everyone.
What the fucking fuck is this? Websites are comically bad now.
You can pick the element out with ublock and the elements blocking the page.
“I ACCEPT NOTHING! NOT EVEN YOUR POPUP!”
Yeah, this is clearly the publisher trying to get out of paying the full bonus.
When I first heard about the firings and the delay to the game I thought “This doesn’t sound plausible. Are they really going to ruin their investment and effectively kill the company to supposedly save a quarter of a billion. That would be unbelievably stupid”. But with every subsequent nugget of information it’s getting increasingly clearer that they, Krafton, actually are unbelievably stupid. They’re pretty much guaranteed that if Subnautica 2 gets released (and that’s assuming Subnautica 2 is in a good enough position to be released) the studio will shutter as all the talent will move on and all the money Krafton spent acquiring the studio is thrown in the wind. They’re not even going to save the quarter billion because the delay means they’re going to be paying at least 6 months wages for minimum effort work because I doubt anyone at that studio is willing to put in the effort after being cheated out of their bonus.
Even if it’s all so obvious I still find it hard to believe the publisher is THAT stupid. But that’s the world we live in, where people get to make idiotic decisions because they’re greedy as fuck.
““This doesn’t sound plausible. Are they really going to ruin their investment and effectively kill the company to supposedly save a quarter of a billion”
You should see the documentary about the making of Lego Island: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bG55COe_f8I
A wildly succesful game, so what did the publisher do after having released a wildly succesful game and having the team that made it under their wings? Fire them all and try to weasel out of the promised bonuses.
It was standard practice 30 years ago, and it still is…
Standard practice has been to fuck over the developers after release. They haven’t released Subnautica 2 yet. They’re screwing the developers over before they’ve cashed out the game. That’s the part that made it implausible in my mind.
It’s ready for prerelease it seems, and very playable. Sounds like they already have what they need. They’re just taking a little headstart :p
We don’t know the exact state of the game but what we know is that it’s early access ready. If previous Unknown world games are of any indication it’s still 2 years away from final release. They might make some money back with early access but it will be negatively reviewed under the pretense that it will not be properly finished. The release is already guaranteed to take a financial hit.
Most Korean companies are like that. Extremely shortsighted, zero capability at creating and managing new markets.
I mean, the publisher seems to be pretty stupid, because…how did they figure that $250 million?
There are two entries in the Subnautica series, Subnautica and Below Zero. Subnautica has sold “over 5 million copies” at a retail price point of $30. So that’s $150 million in gross revenue. For this back of the napkin math I’ll assume that the “over five million” and the number of copies sold at a discount come out in the wash. 30% of that gross revenue is going to immediatley go to Steam or whatever other platform, so the company got $100 million in net revenue before their own expenses like rent and power bills gets at it.
I cannot find sales figures for Below Zero, but it sells for the same price point and I don’t think it could have possibly sold more than Subnautica did, so let’s figure another $150 million gross, $100 million net.
Subnautica as a franchise netted its studio ~$200 million across the launch of two games selling ~10 million copies.
And Krafton had agreed to pay out a $250 million bonus for reaching a certain revenue target in 2025, which they were on track to do given the announced early access launch.
Just to put them in the black for that bonus, Subnautica 2 would have to sell better than both previous games put together at a higher price, and that doesn’t touch the purchase of the studio, operating expenses, or the dump truck of cocaine that must have been involved in these financial decisions.
I didn’t want to think they’re completely incompetent so I decided to do some digging. That $250 million is actually part of their acquisition deal. Krafton technically bought Unknown Worlds for $750 million. $500 million was paid up front and the extra $250 million was due for 2026 if Unknown Worlds met the performance clause. That $250 million has nothing to do with the sales of Subnautica, it’s part of the buyout.
This could mean they were always going to try and stiff Unknown Worlds. It also means it’s probably less about the people working at Unknown Worlds getting stiffed and more about the leadership expecting a payout that was agreed upon.
Okay, they spent $750 million for a studio that has barely made $250 million in its history. I still don’t think the math mathulates here.
Yeah in the world where EA exist and Xbox close down a studio that just launched a successful game and also fire bunch of people and shutting down lot of project, this doesn’t sound far fetch at all.
I guess the lesson the first game trying to teach is to never believe any giant corporation.
They paid for their expertise, even offering a bonus that was clearly less than whatever their projected profit would be, and then tried to squander it because they didn’t listen to their expertise.
Publishers in all kinds of industries are risk adverse to the point of not trusting whoever they made deals with to follow through. This is totally on brand for publishers!
Correct me if I’m wrong, but most of those 250 million were going to the three people that were fired, not the actual workers. I stopped caring about this issue when I learned that, seems like just rich people bickering to me.
That’s according to Krafton and we know they will bend the truth to create a narrative. But even if it’s true I still think Krafton are the assholes here. I’m less concerned when people in positions of power don’t get their position enabled bonuses, but Krafton is also taking away whatever bonus the actual workers were originally promised.
Didn’t know Krafton was Korean. Now it all makes sense. Corporations in Korea are even worse than US corps. They hold so much power. Korea is basically a Cyberpunk country. On the other hand they shouldn’t have sold their soul to the devil. Like that deal was definitely too good to be true. Like half a billion + a quarter billion in bonuses for an indie studio. That’s probably more than the company made in their lifetime.
That was my take.
Before the Krafton acquisition, Unknown Worlds Entertainment has produced Natural Selection 2 (the first was a Half Life mod, not sure it counts), which sold 300,000 copies, Subanutica sold “over five million” at a $30 price point, and I can’t find any sales numbers for Below Zero, but for back of the napkin math let’s say it sold about as well as Subnautica at ~5 million copies, again at $30.
So both Subnautica and Below Zero grossed $150 million. Subtract the 30% that Steam takes, and you’re left with $100 million, so $200 million between those two games would have been the net take.
Meanwhile, Moonbreaker happened, and I have no sales figures for that.
Everybody talks about what a massive hit Subnautica is, and while it is a successful game, Stardew Valley sold 40 million copies. Subnautica 2 stood a good chance of being a solid commercial success with tons of 2 hour Youtube video essays about how it compares to the original. It was never going to make $750 million. Even if it outsold Subnautica and Below Zero combined at double the price. Add in merch, Peeper plushies, T-shirts, ball caps, they were talking about a movie…Subnautica 2 was going to make a good chunk of that but wasn’t going to make it all.
As far as I can tell, they never intended to pay that $250 million bonus, it was probably offered in bad faith as incentive to sell the studio, and when it looked like they were actually going to pull off the conditions Krafton broke the contract in order to break the contract.
If I get my way, Krafton will never do business in the United States again, and since I’m a vengeful asshole that likes doing brain surgery with a backhoe, I’d probably ban Samsung, Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, Sony, Nintendo and Honda, and half of those aren’t even Korean.
IT still remains to be seen if all this is true, but it reads as standard corporate behaviour.
At this point anyone selling a company to a bigger studio is just either ignorant or greedy. It’s almost a given that they’ll just crash it into the grounds. Acquisitions and mergers might be like the eighth deadly sin. Everyone loses.
Yeah I mean, I have a hard time being too sympathetic to people who unnecessarily sold their company. There is no reason to do it. If you need money, you can always get investors to get a minor stake or something.
Who cares? It’s the audiences fault for assuming that prior performance is an indicator of future performance. Let the founders cash out. Buyers get rich because audiences think quality will be maintained post acquisition. How often does that really happen though?
Krafton deserves zero sales on this game. Let it fucking tank, make Krafton go bankrupt.
Sadly companies like this never go bankrupt, they are good at milking dry.
In other news, Krafton extends the payout today too.
Nobody knows what’s going on, at this point just wait until this goes over to court and we’ll see who did what.
I’m not a numbers guy but $25 million seems a tad smaller than $250 million
I saw one article that said 250 total. 25 million goes to the 40 employees who developed it and the other 225 goes to the 3 guys who got fired.
And the fired guys had promised to disburse most of that to their employees.
The vast majority of the bonus was going to the leaders who were ousted.
Smart move, because they absolutely would have gotten sued and likely wound up with no game.
The second I heard the heard the firings happens and the rumors behind why I removed the game from my wishlist. And as more slowly comes out it makes Krafton look worse and worse
That could hurt the devs more than the publisher.
If they can prove breach of contract they can maybe get their IP back. Wishlists are a huge deal for if they want to shop the game around to other publishers.
Let’s be honest. Soon, Subnautica 2 will be on the front page of Steam, likely for a month or more. People who have no idea any of this is happening, nor care will buy it up in droves and in six months, none of this will matter, and you’ll all have likely pirated it by then anyway.
the publishers have the data of the peak of wishlist, they are free to calculate how much mistreating the devs is going to cost them
It would be a few years later for the court to finally reach any judgement
The moment they put someone who oversee the development of Calisto Protocol as CEO, it already smell like a seamoth full of dead peeper. Now this one? This one takes the cake.
Yeah, fuck Krafton. Hope this game bombs.
Was 100% going to buy it. Absolutely won’t now. Fuck em.
Planned on paying for day 1 release. Now yar.
Zero mention of Moonbreaker? Come on. Unknown Worlds have been scamming for a while. Good job, Krafton.
I mean, both things can be true. Krafton might be trying to weasel out of paying that bonus, and the game might not be ready like it should be.
This story comes alongside numerous reports from the dev team that said the team felt it was ready. Plus it was only supposed to launch into early access.
And the dev team for Cities Skylines II kept saying the team felt it was ready, while it was a hot mess. They have an interest in publishing it now.
Launching into early access while not being up to certain standard could hurt the brand.
Now maybe the game was ready and it’s all Krafton’s fault. All I’m saying is that it is absolutely possible that the game isnt ready.
They still both “could” be true. Though more likely something else was a foot. Maybe the earnings target was set poorly such that the payout was more than the increased earnings. You would think in general that such a clause would be mutually beneficial, but clearly one side didn’t think so.