CES 2026 is over and it has revealed the situation with memory being consumed by AI companies is much worse than we initially thought.

What I heard on the ground floor from various system integrators, components manufacturers, and other companies, is memory supply has been tied up for all of 2026, and that shortages could last as long as until 2031.

Sure it’s scuttlebutt but wouldn’t surprise me as being true.

@[email protected]
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141m

Penis! I picked a fine time to finally want to upgrade my Win 7 laptop from 2011.

@[email protected]
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142m

When the bubble pops most of that gear will be useless for consumer use.

@[email protected]
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73h

eli5 why doesn’t someone produce ram and refuse to sell to AI companies and make a bloody fortune?

@[email protected]
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If there was really any demand more DRAM would be being produced.

The reality is most datacentre companies have warehouses full of DRAM and GPUs waiting for datacentres to be built. By the time they will be built, the GPUs they have stashed will be obsolete.

PC sales - and PCs use a lot more DRAM than phones - are falling off a cliff.

So there is no real future demand, that’s why no ones building chip fabs.

@[email protected]
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2h

Because the AI companies will just offer to buy at a higher price.

If you refuse to sell to AI companies you will make a small fortune yes. If you sell to the highest bidder you’ll make a larger fortune.

@[email protected]
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32h

Samsung

SK Hynix

Micron

That’s why.

Developing DRAM manufacturing capability is insanely difficult and hugely expensive. Almost all the worlds DRAM comes from one of these three names and they’re already making their fortune selling to AI companies. They don’t care about how many penny’s people like you or me can scrape together.

Cevilia (she/they/…)
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8916h

Memory that doesn’t exist yet has been bought with money that may never exist to supply datacentres that haven’t been built to serve demand that isn’t there.

@[email protected]
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84h

This meme is pretty new, like from the future, but it checks out.

@[email protected]
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13h

Okay I’m old is this a actually newer meme or was it a joke to post the reply?

It does sound familiar (like close to a movie line) but also sounds accurate. If the bubble pops so much memory available cheaper.

Mean I’m only 1 year into my PC build but I tend to do them every 4 years or so…crap that’s only 5 years from now I thought it was longer, but still lot closer than I thought from first read. Least at this age time goes by quickly, for better or worse heh.

@[email protected]
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23h

It’s not an original comment.

Pavidus
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5521h

The solution is surprisingly simple:

“Sorry, I can’t use your online services. My electronics died. Oh well.” 🤷‍♂️

matlag
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42h

“No worries! We just launched Chat-Phone: a cellphone totally connected to ChatGPT. It has almost no capability by itself: poor CPU, min RAM, min/no storage, etc. But it is always connected to ChatGPT!
BTW: because of RAM shortage, we are the only smartphone maker in the world now!”
The phone is 50$, but you need the premium subscription for it to work…

@[email protected]
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2019h

Or we hunt them down

@[email protected]
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23h

The fashionable new sport

@[email protected]
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09h

Article doesnt mention China?

@[email protected]
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601d

A 5 year DRAM shortage is pretty hard to imagine. I have to suspect that’s a projection that assumes no AI bubble popping (which given how insanely over-leveraged basically every company involved in the bubble is, its inevitable. They’re literally spending more building these datacenters than they can ever dream of recouping once built!) The last DRAM shortage (around 2017-2019 by memory) was only really bad for about a year or so, getting gradually better until it became an absolute glut of DRAM supply that lasted until…well about 3 months ago. $60 per terabyte of SSD storage was glorious, and hopefully I can afford to benefit from the next DRAM glut in 2-5 years

Random Dent
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49h

I’m genuinely putting money aside for when the AI bubble pops so I can hopefully hoover up some cheap computer parts lol

SpaceCadet
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139m

There won’t be “cheap computer parts”, it will all be datacenter junk that’s useless to a consumer, like rackmounted servers with insanely loud fans and “GPUs” that can’t output an image or play games.

@[email protected]
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8h

I keep a separate savings account for things like that. I just call it “upgrade” in my banking app. Its money specifically earmarked for any kind of entirely-optional big purchases, like computer upgrades, server upgrades, home theatre upgrades, etc. I also have one earmarked for replacing my current cars and one for vacations, plus of course my emergency fund

The only problem with this approach is I tend to hoard my money and want to see my savings account go up, so I really don’t end up spending as much as I could on myself. Like I have an entire computer’s worth in the “upgrade” account right now

Sanctus
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32h

I have a checking and a savings. The checking has about 100 bucks in it. The savings 3.15.

@[email protected]
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3020h

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228

Saw this in the news. They’re trying really hard to stack the federal reserve board and send interest rates back down to financial crisis/pandemic levels. AI bubble can have some leg room if interest rates tank

@[email protected]
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1420h

Honestly interest rates dropping might be ultimately be a good thing. The job market is so tight and most recession indicators have already been blazing. I doubt they’ll do the same hard drop they did in Q2 of 2020, but I do think more aggressive rate cuts might alleviate a lot of the burden consumers (especially young adults and anyone unfortunate enough to have been/be jobless over the last couple of years) have been feeling. A big chunk of the inflation consumers were seeing on goods in 2024 was just companies making opportunistic price increases, as evidenced by the heavily advertised price drops afterwards.

Additionally there is the statistic that nearly 50% of all retail spending in the United States is made by the top 10% of earners which is a heck of a dangerous tightrope for the economy. I do think that’s the other shoe waiting to drop right this second. If the wealthier Americans get spooked and start to pull back their spending this economy is going to tumble

Sanctus
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1081d

This cyber enron circlejerk wont last that long

Kairos
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801d

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Sanctus
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1d

Oh no, I saw this coming and bought RAM at the first hike. I’m good for 8 more years. This doesnt help everyone else tho.

@[email protected]
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141d

Totally stealing Cyber Enron

artyom
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681d

The AI bubble will pop long before then, and everyone will have more RAM and GPUs than they know what to do with.

@[email protected]
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851d

looks at housing bubble “… god i hope you’re right”

@[email protected]
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401d

As much as private equity wants to think it is, housing is not a commodity like DRAM is.
Housing always has a base value in that people always need places to live, so it’s price is sticky. The need for DRAM could disappear overnight if it so happened that way.

@[email protected]
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1120h

For the dram unfortunately won’t be possible to use it in the consumer space, at least not in the current form. Hbm is really server stuff, and as is, you cannot repurpose it. As for the GPUs, maybe they can be used for the consumer space but I am not entirely sure the specs would be wise to use it at home, since they need some very serious cooling capabilities, as well electricity consumption. Biggest winners of this pop in my opinion would be anyone who need cheap server rack stuff.

@[email protected]
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1115h

The RAM for 2026-2031 hasn’t been produced. It’s the production capacity that’s been bought out.

If the AI bubble bursts, the manufacturing can be reassigned.

@[email protected]
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1719h

Part of it is not finished DRAM that was sold yet, it’s wafer capacity at the factory.

Sam Altman has promised orders for a kazillion wafers that don’t exist yet. It’s been argued this is less legitimate demand and more an effort to crimp the scaling ambitions of other competitors.

If his cheque bounces early on, the manufacturers are likely to reassign his slots to other buyers.

The manufacturers are taking a fair bit of risk though. If they aren’t getting paid before work starts, and the bubble pops in the middle, thry could end up with a lot of (partially or fully) finished wafers that they can’t just slice up and sell to Corsair and G.Skill.

@[email protected]
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1018h

You are not wrong about the reallocation part. However, if you see the actions from micron (fuck you micron BTW), they are going all in and having a shit storm in PR on the consumer side. If they are taking these risks without proper assurances, then they are utterly deranged

matlag
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23h

Promises of buying only work if the buyer still exists at the time you produce the goods.
Besides, I’m pretty sure that the main buyers type on the consumer side are PC and phone makers. So they could go back there almost unharmed.

@[email protected]
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23h

I’m not sure there’s a way to have proper assurances for such vast sums of silicon and money. You’re going with the flow of the speculation at that point. If it pops, their best hope is for bailouts to save them (not unrealistic, but their interlocutors will then be governments, not corporations).

@[email protected]
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You do have a good point that at a certain point it is not possible to have assurances as in values. However, there are other assurances that can be even more important, such as, contractual ones. If they do not have the proper assurances at that level too up to a certain point, then everyone is highly blindsided on the c suite.

But my biggest point has to do with burning a massive bridge, the consumers, and take a dive into this nonsense.

@[email protected]
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220h

Hbm is really server stuff, and as is, you cannot repurpose it

I mean, you and I can’t, but memory manufacturers? They’ll find a way.

@[email protected]
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22h

This has happened before with LCD panels. I remember my mother’s work laptop had a 1900x1200 panel (back when they were still 4:3 aspect ratio). It was a mid-tier ThinkPad, not cheap but not crazy expensive.

A few years later, panel makers started pushing widescreen formats and user friendly language to “help us understand and make informed choices” like HD and FHD.

The resolution of HD? 1280x720.

High-definition was already a concept, but the idea of calling panels that were a huge step back in resolution “high-def” was exactly how they managed to extract more from consumers for less.

I’m sure they’ll find a way to mislead people into buying overly expensive RAM they don’t actually need.

“You totally need ECC for your HTPC bro, wouldn’t want cosmic rays to mess with your movies!”

@[email protected]
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I hope so, but there’s a way that bubble doesn’t burst even if we’re right that AI never delivers competent/competitive quality: that monopolies simultaneously integrate AI into their products and the entire world simply gets worse, while consumers pay extra for those very AI features they don’t want and which produce an inferior product.

@[email protected]
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211d

Even that isn’t going to be enough. OpenAI has to start making payments on some (most) of these deals and startups starting this fall. If they don’t make these payments (it’s mathematically impossible for them to do so) then everything gets wiped out and the bubble pops.

Pro tip to all you investors here, if your hot new thing can’t do anything other than net360 terms and has double-pledged collateral, it’s not a good investment.

As far as it being like the dotcom crash, at least the few companies that were actually viable and legitimate survived and it “separated the wheat from the chaff” or something along those lines.

There is no viable AI company here, and the market will quickly find out that there isn’t even chaff to be found here, it’s mostly floor sweepings of post processed MDF sawdust and dirt.

@[email protected]
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141d

I suspect very creative firms of accountants and CFOs are working hard right this moment to identify the next step in the shell game. So I suspect some creative refinance could avoid that outcome. But I definitely hope you’re right.

@[email protected]
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1521h

Oh no it’s far worse than that. Private equity is heavily invested into data centers, and so are most large international banks. Private equity is playing the fun “volatility laundering” game where they are deliberately not reevaluating assets to make them look like they are worth more on paper than they actually are. They are basically saying this asset house is still worth the $50,000,000 it was valued at 5 years ago, never mind the fact it burned down and is now a superfund site and uninhabitable.

International banks are also issuing loans based solely on “just trust us bro” paperwork, using the AI companies paperwork as gospel and not looking at anything other than what they are presented with. The average cost of renting a Blackwell CPU is now $4.41 an hour, and that’s before the vast majority of these data centers have even come online.

Something something supply and and demand just trust us tho.

Currently, with data from all AI compute companies and services COMBINED in 2025, revenue comes out to 0.5831% of expenditures.

So for every $1,000,000 spent, you will make $5,831.

The only way out of this mess is if the banks either get paid back for their loans (see previous figures) or private equity gets a lot more capital… and starts paying back banks again (see previous figures comment about previous figures)

@[email protected]
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As an additional note if I am right and this bubble pops (if a single startup goes under, literally any one) then it’s pretty much the collapse of the global financial system and an economic crisis at the level that the world has never seen before.

Literally, and I cannot stress this enough, the entire current system is built on the belief/sentence/mantra “number go up” with no regard for literally anything else.

@[email protected]
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621h

Well, great. So looking at 2008 for the most recent model, I suppose that means government bailouts or subsidies using taxpayer money to save the companies and thereby prevent a complete collapse of markets?

@[email protected]
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1120h

Kind of? Except the lenders with the largest amounts of loans in order are: 1.Blue Owl (USA) (remember this company, it’ll be important as a canary probably) 2. Mitsubishi UFJ financial group (Japan) 3. JP Morgan Chase (USA) 4. Deutsch Bank (Germany) 5. BnP Paribas (France) 6. Morgan Stanley (USA) 7. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (Japan)

So kinda like 2008 but you need (at the very least) Japan, Germany, France, the USA, and possibly South Korea to all coordinate and do bailouts cooperatively together to maybe have a chance.

Good thing we haven’t pissed off our allies or disrupted trade in general, and we also haven’t fucked with interest rates or bonds or anything so we have plenty of tools in our arsenal (god help us all, puts on all of our collective livers.)

There is no saving the AI companies because it is mathematically impossible for them to make money. You would have better luck investing in your local meth heads trying to make alchemy real using nothing but books published by Wizards of the Coast.

artyom
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121h

What way is that?

Mugita Sokio
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-29h

AI is not the bubble. The USD and bonds that are covered thereof are the bubble, and it had burst recently.

artyom
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29h

Huh?

Mugita Sokio
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05h
artyom
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14h

Not watching that. Would you like to explain?

Mugita Sokio
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03h

Long story short, Moss explains how we’re in heading towards an inflationary crash, instead of a deflationary one, like what 2008 was. 2001, 2008, 1929, and 1903 were all deflationary currency crashes if I’m not mistaken, and this one will be due to the US Dollar failing, which is predicted to happen this year (due to the amount of money printing that happens as a result of Babylonian money magick). However, I have a sneaking suspicion this has to do with some length of time before the crash is noticed.

Mugita Sokio
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261d

This is for one purpose if it’s true: To force consumers to rent everything, including their computer, so they can be surveilled.

Don’t use GeForce NOW, even if there’s a Linux client in the works, because it’s surveilled too.

@[email protected]
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1117h

Surveillance isn’t the reason, it’s a larger and more consistent profit margin.

Mugita Sokio
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09h

And yet, we pay for most of it with our PII. In other words, we’re getting doxxed big time with these surveillance services.

@[email protected]
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1
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3h

Why’d you remove your upvote on your own comment?

Edit: wtheck you do this on all your comments.

Mugita Sokio
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03h

That’s for unbiased upvote and downvote totals. I did this with all my comments, though I periodically check to see if I missed any. I decided to get that done one day, and I never looked back.

Kairos
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11d

I’m sorry, the game streaming platform can’t be bothered to make a client for Linux??

Mugita Sokio
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05h

They’re making one already, because cloud gaming is the future of gaming. It’s literally 1984 on that front.

artyom
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21d

They do and have for a while.

@[email protected]
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221d

Fortunately I’m currently I’m happy with what I have. I think I’ll oulast this.

@[email protected]
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291d

I thought the same until one ram stick died this week, it’s apparently now $1200 for a replacement

lost_faith
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312h

JFC, what size? I paid about that for 64gb kit, and between my purchase and pickup 3 days later it went up like 150 - 200

@[email protected]
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23h

48GB 6000MT/s sticks. Was $500 for a kit of two over a year ago

lost_faith
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11h

damn

@[email protected]
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131d

Ouch. Never had memory fail on me before *fingers crossed.

@[email protected]
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141d

Thank god I never sold my old desktops.

I have a i5-3470 with 16gb, i7-8700 with 16 gb, a steamdeck, and recently bought an m4 air.

I’m only gaming on the steamdeck, and those other computers are used for home server stuff.

@[email protected]
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417h

My old computer is 16gb DDR-3, as I used it long time before jumping over to 32gb DDR-5 based systems. And thanks to consoles and rising handhelds (first gen Steam Deck <3), 16gb will be still the base floor for long time it seems.

@[email protected]
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516h

I really hope tha devs target the steamdeck as a baseline for all future games.

I love it when they have a steamdeck graphics profile too.

@[email protected]
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416h

The only problem is the current most used AAA game engine Unreal Engine 5. It is not very good for low end hardware, as the system and developers struggle to optimize it. Even the best devs struggle. But they can’t afford to require high end or just mid PCs. Handhelds become quite popular now. Devs want to make games run on Switch 2, which is beneficial as whole because it has to run under constraints of the system and environment.

Given that RAM prices may stay this expensive, my prediction is that developers absolutely have to make their games run on less powerful hardware (and on 16gb). I wonder how the Steam Machine (PC from Valve) will impact developers focus on Steam Deck.

@[email protected]
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210h

It would be great if devs just target the steam deck and then let you improve graphics for better hardware.

Like, turn up ray tracing and other effects on the steam machine. Let my steamdeck be a potato.

@[email protected]
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110h

Unfortunately the reality is, that developers don’t have all time of the world. They have deadlines to meet and focus on the thing that is in their mind the most important at the moment. For AAA it often means high quality textures and advanced tech like RayTracing, while they have less time to optimize it for weak hardware. On the other side some devs optimize for low hardware and then they don’t get the attention in the media they want to have, by having the greatest and biggest graphics. So they start optimizing later if the game is not too buggy and it is a success, so they get the greenlight to do more work on it.

Off course I simplify and it depends on the teams and publishers and so on. The point I am making is, that its not as easy a decision as we think or hope it would be. Especially because publishers force some decisions, regardless of what the developers or gamers want to have or need.

BlackLaZoR
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91d

In 5 years china is going to ramp up their domestic production, so they’ll have cheap RAM while we don’t

@[email protected]
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119m

Too bad it will be difficult for us to see all their fancy cheap RAM through all the yummy Venezuelan oil covering this place! It’s totally worth my eyes and skin stinging a little bit all the time. Oh and my lungs of course.

~sad /s~

@[email protected]
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617h

They’ll sell it.

Mugita Sokio
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-15h

I don’t think they’ll sell their RAM, as the RAM fabs from China will be strictly used for their tech. We won’t get squat, because we squandered when Crucial shut down their consumer production.

@[email protected]
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217h

Why would they sell it for cheap, if they can sell it for just a little but under current market value and maximize the profit? People would buy it, if it is the cheapest option. Which does not mean it will be cheap overall, if its constantly sold out.

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