CES 2026 is over and it has revealed the situation with memory being consumed by AI companies is much worse than we initially thought.
What I heard on the ground floor from various system integrators, components manufacturers, and other companies, is memory supply has been tied up for all of 2026, and that shortages could last as long as until 2031.
Sure it’s scuttlebutt but wouldn’t surprise me as being true.
AI investment isn’t rational like consumer spending. Consumers will only spend what is reasonable for their needs.
The AI bubble allows companies to purchase inventory at higher prices than consumers will ever pay then leave it on a shelf unused. The suppliers are making record profits supplying them. Unless China increases supply beyond the current memory cartel all we can do is wait for the inevitable market collapse.
If there was really any demand more DRAM would be being produced.
The reality is most datacentre companies have warehouses full of DRAM and GPUs waiting for datacentres to be built.
By the time they will be built, the GPUs they have stashed will be obsolete.
PC sales - and PCs use a lot more DRAM than phones - are falling off a cliff.
So there is no real future demand, that’s why no ones building chip fabs.
Developing DRAM manufacturing capability is insanely difficult and hugely expensive. Almost all the worlds DRAM comes from one of these three names and they’re already making their fortune selling to AI companies. They don’t care about how many penny’s people like you or me can scrape together.
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eli5 why doesn’t someone produce ram and refuse to sell to AI companies and make a bloody fortune?
AI investment isn’t rational like consumer spending. Consumers will only spend what is reasonable for their needs.
The AI bubble allows companies to purchase inventory at higher prices than consumers will ever pay then leave it on a shelf unused. The suppliers are making record profits supplying them. Unless China increases supply beyond the current memory cartel all we can do is wait for the inevitable market collapse.
If there was really any demand more DRAM would be being produced.
The reality is most datacentre companies have warehouses full of DRAM and GPUs waiting for datacentres to be built. By the time they will be built, the GPUs they have stashed will be obsolete.
PC sales - and PCs use a lot more DRAM than phones - are falling off a cliff.
So there is no real future demand, that’s why no ones building chip fabs.
Because the AI companies will just offer to buy at a higher price.
If you refuse to sell to AI companies you will make a small fortune yes. If you sell to the highest bidder you’ll make a larger fortune.
Samsung
SK Hynix
Micron
That’s why.
Developing DRAM manufacturing capability is insanely difficult and hugely expensive. Almost all the worlds DRAM comes from one of these three names and they’re already making their fortune selling to AI companies. They don’t care about how many penny’s people like you or me can scrape together.