Hallenbeck Lemmy
This is my Lemmy account.
Also on Mastodon: @[email protected]
And Bluesky: @hallenbeck.thelastboyscout.uk
- 28 Posts
- 57 Comments
The City and Chelsea cases are much bigger, so it’s understandable that it will take longer. But it nothing comes of it, what message will that send?
Agreed! Interesting content, in-depth analysis, great goals, highlights from extraordinary or notable matches. 👍
I’ve found some content I’ve posted along these lines gets downvoted (e.g. https://lemmy.world/post/8042698) for no given reason, which is always a bit dispiriting. In that example, it’s always good fun to get an insight into how top coaches think, even if you don’t support that team. Sky’s Monday Night Football great for that - Gary O’Neil and Thomas Franck being notable examples recently:
Hello!
Would be great if highlights and goals could be kept in a single matchweek thread or similarly organised somehow. They often crowd out and rapidly push down other content making it hard to see. I’ve sometimes logged in to find a wall of scores and match updates for stuff I’m not interested in (e.g. the wall of Copenhagen v Manchester United goals recently - would those not be better served up in a single thread rather than a post per goal?). Highlights are fine, but I can usually find extended highlights pretty easily on the many highlight websites out there (including YouTube). Posting scores here seems a bit redundant too - there are so many apps and websites now that provide live scores and in-depth stats.
But I appreciate these things might be useful to others so just appealing for perhaps a bit more organisation around them.
We Spurs fans had three defensive coaches in succession (Mourinho, Nuno, Conte) and those seasons were pure misery and without any progress, despite at least two of those coaches being proven “serial winners”. There’s a reason why top clubs in the Premier League aren’t defensive – fans and the media hate it and it doesn’t suit the league. The clubs at the bottom of the league tend to adopt more defensive low-blocks and mid-blocks out of necessity. Some clubs like Brentford and Wolves have had some success and are dubbed “giant killers” for adopting a low-block and counter-attacking style. But they’re not top-4 contenders.
West Ham were steered to victory in the Europa Conference league by David Moyes and he is a notably defensive, pragmatic coach.
Also, in the 22/23 Champions league, 3 of the 4 Premier League clubs in the competition have lower GA/90 (goals against per 90) stats than Atletico:
- Atletico: 1.50
- Liverpool: 1.50
- Chelsea: 0.90
- Tottenham: 0.88
- Manchester City: 0.38
The eventual winners of the Champions League last year was of course City, with a total number of goals conceded of just 5 in a total of 1170 minutes of play. Atletico conceded 9 in only 540 minutes.
I don’t think Simeone knows what he’s talking about.
Same for me but using Geddit. Also finally exploring Mastodon for a replacement for match threads.
Both are part of the fediverse so not mutually exclusive.
You can start a match thread on Mastodon and mention the handle of this community in the post (@[email protected]) and it’ll not only start a thread on Mastodon, but also here. Comments added on Masto will appear in the thread here and vice versa. Likes on Masto will appear as upvotes here and upvotes here appear as likes on Masto. It’s quite cool. You can tell when a post originated from Mastodon because it has that little rainbow fediverse icon on it.
If you follow a Lemmy community on Masto, the posts will appear as boosts in your timeline.
Here’s a thread I started on Masto but is also on the [email protected] community:
https://lemmy.world/post/8197032
All the comments were added from Mastodon, not Lemmy.
This is a thread I posted here directly from Mastodon:
https://lemmy.world/post/7968059
More details on how all this works here: https://vijayprema.com/using-lemmy-from-my-existing-mastodon/
It’s not the calls that are the problem. In the Tottenham Chelsea game the decisions were all correct in the end (pretty much). It’s all the waiting around that’s the problem. It ruins the flow and enjoyment of the game. I don’t know anyone at this point that thinks VAR has improved the game. Fans of clubs in the Championship often tell me they prefer no VAR.
Yeah, experience from moderating over at [email protected] is that you’ve just got to keep posting and posting and posting and gradually, very slowly, the numbers creep up. Same on Mastodon on the #MastodonFC and #COYS tags (can’t speak for other clubs). You’ve got to give people a reason to come back.
Personally, I’m not sure the individual posts containing a single goal from a specific match is helping much. Makes the community seem very noisy. IMO would be better to have one thread per match with goals posted as comments. But I’m not mod here and others may feel differently, so ¯_(ツ)_/¯
FWIW, I don’t see the community as dead. I post a few things here and there’s often a good number of votes and some good discussion. Seems far from dead to me.
They’ll need to come up with some strategies for keeping warm while waiting an indeterminate amount of time while waiting for VAR.
In American Football they use stationary bikes to keep warm.
https://bikehike.org/why-do-nfl-players-use-stationary-bike/
Yes, the big league with their multiple camera angles led to so much scrutiny after the games, VAR felt somewhat inevitable. I’d like to see it radically scaled back. Goal line technology is fine. But get rid of the ridiculous offside checks and the debatable handballs and let the game flow. There’s an argument emerging too that all the standing around waiting for decisions can lead to injuries as muscles cool and stiffen.
I don’t think Haaland coming second is a fair representation of his stature as a striker enjoying the fruits of exceptional service. He’s notably worse when Rodri and KDB aren’t playing. The fact that goal scorers like Haaland get votes highlights what a weird award Ballon d’Or is. The focus should be on the team award with secondary individual awards for best positions (best 9, best 10, best wingers, 6, fullbacks, centrebacks, and gk).
I’ve redone it with a little more care (see above) and agree the summing of xG over performance wasn’t a good idea. It was a vestigial artefact where I’d been mucking about and I wish I’d removed it, but it was late and I couldn’t be bothered as it didn’t really affect the point I was making and it’s not intended to be rigorous maths.
The results in the updated version aren’t significantly different apart from Messi. The reason Messi’s over performance has shifted so much in the update is because I removed the three PSG and MLS years, which I think are an unfair reflection on him.
I don’t agree averaging the xG overperformance “grossly” inflated the numbers (unless you consider 6% gross). I do agree including the PSG and MLS years grossly short changes Messi, but I noted something to that effect in the original.
You don’t need to be quite so hostile to people sharing their stuff here btw - save that for Twitter or Reddit if hostilities float your boat. I take it you’re not and have never been an educator? But no harm done - thx for the feedback - it was useful and improved the analysis :)
A little heavy to say “fraudulent” and “total BS” - it’s a sketch I quickly knocked up from FBref data (which only goes back to '17) to help me understand Son’s low xG and relatively high actual goals. It’s meant to be indicative rather than precise. Critique and improvement always welcome, but no need to be so rude, mate. I’ll make some improvements based on your feedback.
I was a little surprised by these figures myself so went looking for any prior work in this area and found this from '21: https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/tottenham/son-heung-min-xg-harry-kane-b1782968.html. The figures there broadly reflect what I’ve got here. The point being made remains the same. It also contains some theories as to why Son is such an outlier, but the conclusion seems to be Son is indeed unusual.
“Goodman agrees, though, that in a game of mostly uniform standards of finishing, Son’s numbers are startling.”
“Goodman” here is Mike L Goodman, the former managing editor of StatsBomb.
I agree it will be good to see how he fares with a) more shots; b) more goals; c) more play in the box. This season and beyond with him playing as a 9 should hopefully shed some light.
I also agree he’s probably not the one-of-a-kind genius Messi is. But to be even vaguely comparable is in itself quite a remarkable thing. And the bigger question for me is, is there anyone else, aside from Messi, that comes close?
Update: here’s an improved version: https://thelastboyscout.uk/assets/img/son_xg_stats.webp
Would you say he’s THE most elite finisher, though? He’s definitely up there when comparing the data of his peers. That’s what I mean but underrated. He takes fewer shots than the others, so that could be skewing things. But then again, if you look at other players who take a similar number of shots, they don’t overperform like Son consistently does. I don’t know, he seems to be a bit of a outlier. I can’t find any other player like him. Will be very interesting to see what his numbers are like at the end of this season with him playing as a 9 and without Kane. Will he still overperform?
Oh I think I see what you’re saying: a poor team will create poorer chances in general, leading to lower xG shots. There’s truth in that, but is it the case at Spurs? The club has had an average league position of 4.6 over the last 10 seasons, which suggests it has had above average players, regardless of (lack of) trophies, so you’d have thought, on balance, those players would in general be capable of “good play” resulting in high xG chances. All that is besides the point, though. This analysis is about how Son has an uncanny ability to score low xG chances.
Handy hint: you can eyeball low xG goals by looking at a player’s Goal Log on FBref then sorting on the xG column, low to high. Always fun to check out the really low ones. The PSxG stat (called xGOT on Sofascore) gives us an indication of how savable the shot is - the closer to 1, the less likely to save. It’s a useful indicator of the “quality” of the shot to go along with the “difficulty” represented by xG.
E.g. https://fbref.com/en/players/92e7e919/goallogs/dom_lg/Son-Heung-min-Goal-Log
No, it takes into account the events and circumstances of the play, not the individual skill of the players involved. At least, that’s how Opta’s xG model works.
xG does not take into account the quality of player(s) involved in a particular play. It is an estimate of how the average player or team would perform in a similar situation.
More here: https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/
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True. But now with Scott Munn running the football. We can only hope Levy has learned his lesson and will leave the football side of Tottenham Hotspur FC to football people. If he can rake in the cash from the stadium and other ventures then more power to him, just as long as it doesn’t come at the embarrassing expense of good football.
He wasn’t clearly the issue. He’s been doing well at Bayern with a team only partially built around him. He probably wouldn’t have be the best fit under Ange, and perhaps we wouldn’t be doing as well, but he wasn’t THE problem at Spurs. Perhaps symbolic of many of the problems that have dogged the club since Poch’s peak. Arguably a case of Ewing Theory.
I’d put the main issue down as Levy neglecting the football in favour of the business (the stadium etc), then seeking quick fixes when things turned south. But with Scott Munn coming in to take over running the football side, along with Ange as coach and Lange as scout, we could have reached a turning point. Time will tell.
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Yes, I think the data might be off. Physicality is supposed to be both duels and aerial duels won. Spurs are actually near the top of the tables for tackles and interceptions %. But we’re third from bottom for aerial duels won %. Looking at the other charts and comparing to the data on FBref, it looks like DataMB is only using aerial duels for physicality.
It was originally posted to the Spurs community (and Mastodon). See here. I cross-posted it here because I thought it might be of general interest for other fans to see how their teams compare. The site used to make the graphs can be easily used for other comparisons. Worth having a play if interested.
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@[email protected] What site are you using to generate the chart?
It’s complicated to legislate for, though. It’s not just about limiting time played as a blanket policy across leagues. Context is important. Have a listen to this podcast with performance manager I posted a link to a few days back:
https://lemmy.world/post/8310123
Specifically the part starting at 33:15. It’s not a straightforward problem to solve, sadly.