It’s kind of funny how you just confidently pull a number out of your ass here. On what basis do you think China is 5-8 years away from making their own EUV machines exactly?
The reality is that China is already starting to experiment with their own EUV approaches. A lot of the complexity in ASML machines comes from the fact that they need to be compact enough to ship around the world. China is looking at the approach of using an accelerator instead.
I’ve been following this story for 5 years. There’s lots of hopey articles like this over that time. SMEE was supposed to release a 28-nm DUV machine last year in 2023, then 2024 summer, then 2024 December. To date no release.
Most of these innovations by thr Chinese are academic discoveries that will take years further to productionize.
Generally if the Chinese say they will do something new-technology-wise next year, it will happen 2-5 years after when they say it will.
I find that generally we tend to see tech progress in China outpace predictions. For example, nobody expected China to start producing 7 and 5nm chips by now, nobody thought Huawei clusters would be able to compete with Nvidia, etc. Of course, doing new things is always tricky, and 2-5 years certainly sounds plausible to me.
They’re producing these 7 nm and 5 nm chips on ASML machines they bought or smuggled into the country. The problem is they can’t fix them on warranty if they break and they can’t figure out how to reverse engineer them yet. I’m hopefully but I’m realistic.
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It’s kind of funny how you just confidently pull a number out of your ass here. On what basis do you think China is 5-8 years away from making their own EUV machines exactly?
The reality is that China is already starting to experiment with their own EUV approaches. A lot of the complexity in ASML machines comes from the fact that they need to be compact enough to ship around the world. China is looking at the approach of using an accelerator instead.
I’ve been following this story for 5 years. There’s lots of hopey articles like this over that time. SMEE was supposed to release a 28-nm DUV machine last year in 2023, then 2024 summer, then 2024 December. To date no release. Most of these innovations by thr Chinese are academic discoveries that will take years further to productionize. Generally if the Chinese say they will do something new-technology-wise next year, it will happen 2-5 years after when they say it will.
I find that generally we tend to see tech progress in China outpace predictions. For example, nobody expected China to start producing 7 and 5nm chips by now, nobody thought Huawei clusters would be able to compete with Nvidia, etc. Of course, doing new things is always tricky, and 2-5 years certainly sounds plausible to me.
They’re producing these 7 nm and 5 nm chips on ASML machines they bought or smuggled into the country. The problem is they can’t fix them on warranty if they break and they can’t figure out how to reverse engineer them yet. I’m hopefully but I’m realistic.
They’re not doing that, they’re using an alternative approach to EUV