Idk about 2 years, but they can definitely do it by 2030.
It took TSMC a while to get to that point if I’m not mistaken, so even with all the financial might of the CCP, I still doubt it will happen THAT quickly.
Sure, it’s hard to predict exact timing on these sort of things, so another 5 years is a plausible timeline. It does tend to be easier to do things the second time around. When you’re doing something from scratch then you don’t know what the right approach will be, you’re going to have false starts, and so on. When the general idea has been proven, it’s much easier to replicate because now you know what the general direction to pursue is.
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I imagine they will be able to produce bleeding edge chips within a year or two tops. What’s even more interesting though is that China is now producing chips on different substrates like gallium that don’t have any equivalents in the west. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3323448/luo-weiwei-former-nasa-scientist-who-became-chinas-semiconductor-trump-card
Idk about 2 years, but they can definitely do it by 2030.
It took TSMC a while to get to that point if I’m not mistaken, so even with all the financial might of the CCP, I still doubt it will happen THAT quickly.
Sure, it’s hard to predict exact timing on these sort of things, so another 5 years is a plausible timeline. It does tend to be easier to do things the second time around. When you’re doing something from scratch then you don’t know what the right approach will be, you’re going to have false starts, and so on. When the general idea has been proven, it’s much easier to replicate because now you know what the general direction to pursue is.