A new technology is not simply another tool at our disposal. It changes us as well.
Since prediction markets makes it possible to legally make money of the expected outcomes. Both insider trading and changing outcomes becomes ways of legally making money.
This means that it not only predicts, but makes those in power able to change the world in order to make money of a prediction.
Outcomes of bets is altered by those with power. Which means bets on the likelihood of a Greenland annexation is heavily affected by Trumps speeches. Since so many people bet on this outcome, even a small change of % moves huge amounts of money.
This means that the true likelihood is unknown and not actually predicted. It just gives that illusion.
This is the true nature of prediction markets. Transferring more wealth to those with money and power.
Regulations might stifle this somewhat in the future. Trump and his admin does not want this of course.
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Yea, I saw that Ben Affleck film too.
Which movie is that?
Ironically it’s called Paycheck.